By Manuel Odeny
The current US-Israel vs Iran war has made it look like Iran is a superpower in the Middle East, despite longstanding sanctions which has crippled her economy and a super power raining bombs on it, completely obliterating their defense system.
In the region alone, apart from Israel, Iran has launched drone and ballistic attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Azerbaijan and even the mighty Turkey, a regional economic super power.
On the list Turkey had some missiles and ballistic ammunition intercepted by NATO, a regional security army, whose membership comprises US and European countries.
Apart from breathing fire in pressers with some sulking away, and only Saudi Arabia firing low level Iran embassy staff, no regional neighbor has dared retaliate back at Iran with direct attacks.
In the region close by only Yemen and Lebanon has not been touched by Iranian drones and ballistic attacks because the two have Iran auxiliary armies in Houthis and Hezbollah respectively.
Hezbollah, an Iran auxiliary Shia militia, decided to join the war and Houthis have toned down and decided to watch from the sidelines.
The Houthis are holding back from fully joining the war to avoid intense retaliation from the US and Israel that could threaten their control in Yemen, while acting as a tactical reserve for Iran’s regional “Axis of Resistance” as Hezbollah’s ranks are being decimated further.
Their hesitation is also driven by a desire to preserve military capability and maintain a fragile domestic truce, balancing ideological solidarity against survival.
Houthis decided to hold on because at home they are afraid to lose ground in a fragile peace deal with Saudi-backed rivals and need to avoid being ‘proxy’ targets after their earlier forays at blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait landed them international heat.
Equally, with the Strait of Hormuz being controlled by Iran, Houthis attempt to again cause chaos at the primary choke point in the Red Sea of Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will further complicate matters.
The strait is only 32km at Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti/Eritrea on the African side and is a critical passage for nearly 15% of global maritime trade and 10% of global oil shipments.
In the past Houthis proved they could cause chaos at the strait despite the African side having army bases from all superpowers, despite taking a heavy toll on being bombed.
What has raised eyebrows is that of all the neighbours it has, Iran has refused to attack the nuclear armed Pakistan despite the two sharing an over 900 kilometers border.
This is partly because of China which is doing a $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project to open energy and trade routes and needed to protect her investments.
The last point of the project at Gwadar Port in Arabian sea, located in Balochistan province is only 120 kilometers from Iran which is within range of missile attacks in case the war escalates.
Additionally, in the region apart from Israel, Pakistan is a nuclear power (status which has also eluded Turkey) and Iran can start a war and piss off a nuclear armed country.
Pakistan also has defense pacts with Saudi Arabia and the US which can stir the pot further.
